That 3% loan is doing real work. It’s also a loud roommate. It votes on every talk about a bigger house, a shorter commute, a different school, or a job in another city.

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed average at 6.95% as of Sept. 17, up from 6.76% the week before and 6.26% a year earlier. That’s four weekly increases in a row. The number’s close enough to 7% that it’ll dominate the kitchen table. It shouldn’t cast the only vote.

Lock-in is real. Rate versus rate is still the wrong comparison.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s National Mortgage Database showed that as of the first quarter of 2026, the average interest rate on outstanding mortgages was still 4.4%. That gap between what you pay now and what a new loan costs is the October conversation for anyone thinking about moving up or relocating.

The wrong comparison is 3% or 4.4% versus 6.95%. The useful one is the life you’ve got in this house versus the full cost of the next one: new principal and interest, taxes, insurance, HOA dues if they apply, and the constraints you’re already living with. Payment shock is real. So is a bedroom that no longer fits, a job that isn’t local anymore, or a house that’s quietly running the household.

Put the payment next to the reason for moving.

Write two columns. Column one is why you want to move: space, schools, caretaking, a job, health, a relationship change. Column two is what it costs to stay, including the repairs you keep postponing because the rate is cheap. Then model the next house the same way. Don’t stop at the mortgage rate.

Existing-home sales ran at 3.98 million annually in August, and inventory reached 1.62 million homes, a 4.9-month supply, according to the National Association of Realtors. The national median sale price was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier. That’s context, not a local guarantee. Your next payment depends on the house you actually buy and the taxes and insurance that come with it.

AddressUSA’s midyear look at how the 2026 market thawed without a rate collapse made the same point in June: people move because life requires it, not because the national average rate cooperates.

Name the tools. Don’t promise them.

If the next house is the right house, you can sometimes narrow the gap without pretending 6.95% is 4.4%. Seller credits on the purchase can help with cash to close or a temporary buydown. A smaller next house can keep the payment inside a number you can live with. A later close can line up with a bonus, a sale, or a school year. None of that’s automatic. All of it’s worth modeling before you decide the old rate has veto power.

If you do list, price against current closed sales, not against the payment you wish the buyer had. Sitting too long on the way out of a low-rate house helps no one. AddressUSA’s piece on how concessions get deals done is a practical companion if the next buyer needs help with payment or cash to close.

Say your current principal-and-interest payment is about $1,800. A similar-size house at today’s rate, plus higher taxes and insurance, might land closer to $3,200 a month. That’s the shock. Ask what this house is costing in rooms you don’t have, miles you drive, or work you can’t take. If those costs are smaller than the gap, staying’s cheaper. If they’re already large, the cheap loan is subsidizing a constraint. Run it on your numbers, not on a national median.

A Stay-or-go Filter

Staying is the better call when this house still fits the week you actually live, the payment shock would crowd out other goals, and the reason to move can wait without real cost. A move is the better call when the constraint is already expensive in time, health, work, or family, and a smaller house or a credit-backed purchase keeps the new payment inside a plan you can defend.

Don’t tell yourself you have to surrender a 3% or 4.4% loan. Don’t tell yourself you have to keep a house that no longer works because the loan is cheap. Stop letting the old rate cast the only vote.

Bottom Line

Near-7% money makes lock-in feel permanent. It’s a cost, not a life plan. Compare the full next payment with the reason you want to move, use local numbers for the sale and the purchase, and decide on purpose.

Next Step

Request a move-or-stay payment comparison from an AddressUSA agent before the old rate decides the next five years. He or she can start with a current home valuation that can model the next house’s full payment, not just the rate on the note you already love.