You’ve likely seen the headline: sales have slowed, inventory has increased, and the market is “more balanced.” Then you drive down your street and think, “This doesn’t seem to be the case in my area.”
The September story applies to buyers and sellers. A national chart can set the stage. It can’t tell you whether your three-bedroom is up against six similar homes or one listing that still draws two showings a day.
According to the National Association of Realtors, which published its August Existing-Home Sales report on Sept. 10, 2026, existing-home sales ran at a 3.98 million annual rate, down 2.0% from July. Inventory rose to 1.62 million homes, a 4.9-month supply, the highest in more than a decade. The national median sale price was $429,100, up 1.6% year over year, and homes spent a median of 31 days on the market.
That's a useful background. It isn’t the price of your house.
AddressUSA’s mid-year forecast already called this year a thaw, not a crash and not a boom. The country is quieter than it was a few years ago. Your ZIP code may still be tight, sloppy, or somewhere in between, which is why micro-markets so often fail to match the headline.
The Five Numbers that Change a Decision
Ask an agent to pull these for your property type, price range, and ZIP code, not the whole metro. Then check the same story on the ground when you look at homes for sale.
1. New listings. This figure shows how many properties have recently come on the market. Even a quiet week in your area can still produce a quick sale. When new listings jump, buyers have more choices and sellers have to compete on condition and price. If you’re shopping, count the substitutes in your range this week. If you’re listing, count how many houses will sit next to yours on the first weekend.
2. Active inventory and months of supply. Months of supply shows how long it would take to sell the current stock at the current pace. Four to six months is generally treated as more balanced. Below that, sellers usually keep more control over price. Above that, buyers usually get more room to negotiate. The national 4.9-month supply figure from NAR covers both situations: one home sells in two weeks, while another goes through two open houses and a small price adjustment.
3. Median days on market. Think of this as a speedometer, not a grade. NAR put the national median at 31 days in August. If homes like yours go pending in, say, 12 days, a quiet first two weeks isn’t “the market.” It points to price or presentation. If local comps linger past 45 days, a clean offer has more leverage than a national average suggests. If a listing stalls, the stale-listing playbook is more useful than another chart.
4. Price reductions and sale-to-list results. This is the honesty check. Are sellers in your band holding the first ask, trimming it, or still drawing competing offers? First-month traffic still follows pricing discipline. In many neighborhoods, a concession can move a monthly payment more than a small price cut. The better question isn’t whether the country cut prices. It’s what the last five homes like yours actually accepted.
5. Pending and closed sales. Stock without contracts is only potential. Pending sales show whether buyers in your range are moving. Closed sales show what they paid. Rising listings and fading pendings are a different market from both moving together. That’s the difference between options on paper and options you can use.
What This Means if You’re Buying or Selling
If you’re buying, more homes nationally doesn’t hand you a discount. The better question is whether a similar house is available this week. If there is, you can talk about price, repairs, timing, or a rate buydown. If there isn’t, the thaw won’t write your offer. Pair the local five numbers with what you can actually afford each month and financing options before you stretch for a house that only looks cheaper on paper.
If you’re selling, a higher national supply figure isn’t a reason to sit out or overprice and wait. If similar homes are taking longer and selling close to ask, price first. Fall still has to beat the holiday default. Presentation still matters. Curb appeal and simple home-service prep change how people walk in.
Ask a local AddressUSA agent five questions. How many active listings match my type and price in this ZIP code? What’s the months of supply in that band? What are days on market for the last 30 and 90 days? What share of those comps cut price, and what did they sell for versus list? Are pendings rising as new listings arrive?
The Learning Center can help you frame the conversation. It can’t replace the snapshot.
Your Next Step
Your ZIP code and price range tell a story no national headline can convey. Request your Local Five-Number Market Snapshot and current value range from an AddressUSA agent.